In the wake of the political earthquake of the midterm elections, could the Trump administration reconsider its economic policies? Federvini hopes so. Tariffs have created serious problems for Italian companies and, as many had predicted, have done more to fuel inflation in the United States than to protect American producers. Rising prices, in turn, were among the factors behind the Republicans’ resounding electoral defeat.

The Italian federation had already warned of the consequences of the tariffs, arguing that the costs would be borne not only by European exporters but also by American consumers. That position is now shared by the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS), which has renewed its call for zero tariffs.

Could Washington now be ready to reconsider its approach? “There have been no official announcements so far,” says Chiara Soldati, Chair of Federvini’s Sustainability Committee. “And we should remember that, even though Democrats now control Congress, President Trump still has veto power and can stand by his decisions. What we hope for, and believe is possible, is a more conciliatory approach to bilateral relations between the United States and Europe, particularly Italy, and a more balanced economic policy.”

What Democrats Have Promised

Tariffs, Soldati adds, “are not just an issue for Italy, Europe or the wine industry. This is a much broader problem that has fueled significant inflationary pressure in the American market. It was also one of the main issues in the Democrats’ election campaign. U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden was particularly outspoken in calling for the abolition of tariffs. Now the question is whether he was expressing a genuine commitment to easing trade tensions or simply making campaign promises.”

As became clear last week in New York at Vinitaly.USA, where Italy’s wine industry — including the Italian Trade Agency, Veronafiere, the Ministry of Tourism and private companies — presented a united front, there have been modest signs of growth for Italian products over the past six months. But exports have fallen sharply since the beginning of the year.

“That is a worrying trend,” Soldati says, “reflecting the combined impact of tariffs and a broader slowdown in domestic U.S. consumption, which has certainly not helped sales of our products.”

Eight Months to Forget

According to a study by Nomisma, commissioned by Federvini’s research center, the U.S. market saw a sharp slowdown in alcoholic beverage sales during the first eight months of the year, with significant declines in both wine and spirits.

U.S. spirits imports fell 28% in value, from $6.3 billion to $4.5 billion. The decline affected all major suppliers, with particularly steep drops for Canada (48%) and the Netherlands (67%). Italy was also hit hard, with exports down 34%, underscoring the difficulties facing the sector in the American market.

Wine imports fell 25.2% in value and 16.8% in volume. Italy maintained a leading position, accounting for 32.6% of U.S. wine imports by value, but its exports nevertheless declined 25%. Sparkling wines proved more resilient than still wines, while Prosecco limited its losses to 7.2% in value. Sales across U.S. retail channels also declined, particularly in lower price brackets.

Pressure on Average Prices

“The most significant finding,” Nomisma notes, “is that the decline in the value of imports has outpaced the drop in volume, pointing to pressure on average prices.” In other words, the market is experiencing not only a reduction in the quantity of products imported but also a decline in their commercial value.

“For Italian producers, the challenge will be to protect their market positioning and profit margins in an environment of weaker demand and growing price sensitivity,” the report says.

For now, the industry is left hoping that a change in the political climate will bring some relief on the tariff front.