Rising energy costs, war in the Middle East, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, public health concerns and the rapid advance of new technologies are reshaping markets and the way businesses operate. As the world changes at an increasingly unpredictable pace, agriculture is struggling to adapt to a landscape that has been profoundly transformed.

How can the sector navigate these challenges and remain competitive in the years ahead? That was the central question at Coldiretti’s International Forum on Agriculture and Food. The Italian agricultural association sees Made in Italy as an essential resource and a key asset in responding to the changes underway.

“Agriculture is a strategic sector at the heart of Italy’s agri-food supply chain, which generates €707 billion in economic activity and employs 4 million people. Yet it is directly exposed to increasingly severe international tensions,” says Felice Adinolfi, Director of the Divulga Research Center.

The Strait of Hormuz factor

In an interview with La Stampa, Adinolfi acknowledges that the situation is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. According to the center’s analysis, the conflict in Iran has generated “additional costs of more than €250 per cultivated hectare.”

The figure highlights how “food security has become an integral part of economic and geopolitical security.” The consequences of war ripple through markets, driving up energy and transportation costs, pushing food prices higher and eroding household purchasing power.

As production costs rise, farming becomes more expensive and food production more difficult. At the same time, consumers facing declining purchasing power risk finding food increasingly unaffordable. The result is a vicious cycle that puts pressure on the entire agri-food supply chain.

“From wars and the climate crisis to European policy choices, public health and artificial intelligence, everything is interconnected with food production and the future of our societies,” Adinolfi says.

He is calling for policymakers in Italy and, above all, at the European level to give agriculture a more central role. The European Union is negotiating its next long-term budget, including funding for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

“We must restore the central role of communities and strategic sectors such as agriculture, which underpin the continent’s security and autonomy,” Adinolfi says.

Food quality is another priority, including efforts to curb the spread of ultra-processed products, which carry significant environmental and health costs. “Defending the Mediterranean diet and high-quality agriculture means investing not only in the economy but also in public health,” he says.

The digital challenge

Technology is another force in reshaping the sector, with digital tools expected to play an increasingly important role in agricultural businesses.

“Artificial intelligence offers extraordinary opportunities to boost productivity and sustainability, but it also forces us to ask who will govern these transformations and how we can prevent new inequalities,” Adinolfi says.

The future of European agriculture — and of Italy’s distinctive food and farming sector — will depend in part on how these challenges are addressed. Coldiretti has made them central to its strategy.