An absence can sometimes be more powerful than a presence. The shock of the pope’s health crisis has made his message resonate more deeply, but it has not dispelled darker concerns.

“It is disrespectful, or at the very least premature, to speculate about future scenarios,” Cardinal Marcello Semeraro, prefect of the Dicastery for the Causes of Saints, told La Stampa. “The Holy See has extensive experience in dealing with situations involving a pope’s illness, as it demonstrated with Francis and, before him, John Paul II.”

The Vatican official added: “Pope Leo could have announced his illness in a statement, but he chose to disclose it personally in a setting of communal prayer, during the Angelus.”

Leo, Semeraro continued, “could have issued different instructions, but he chose a more familiar approach. The Holy See has experience gained from previous emergencies. Above all, Leo’s decision to be transparent about his health has prevailed over any strategic considerations, and that transparency continues.”

On Wednesday, in a subdued St. Peter’s Square, where the pope’s weekly general audience was canceled for the first time, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle read a text to the heads of the world’s bishops’ conferences and the Eastern Churches. It was the homily prepared by the pope, who is beginning his postoperative recovery at Gemelli Hospital.

“May there never again be episodes of violence, estrangement or division within families,” Leo XIV urged in the text, read by Tagle, the newly appointed dean of the College of Cardinals. “May anyone who has been hurt or scandalized be promptly comforted and healed.”

The illness marks a turning point in Leo’s pontificate: it could accelerate his agenda or diminish his ability to pursue it. Nothing is being concealed about the pope’s vulnerability.

“The decision to be transparent does credit to a Church accused of keeping too many secrets, but it also takes something away from the sacredness of the papal office,” said sociologist Massimo Introvigne. “Revealing that the pope’s condition is somewhat serious immediately sets off speculation about a future conclave and a race to identify possible successors. This has always happened, and there is no reason to be scandalized by it. In the meantime, however, the Church needs day-to-day leadership.”

Introvigne added: “Leo will try to retain control over the major decisions as far as possible and identify key figures, including Tagle, to whom he can delegate responsibilities, without major accelerations or reversals.”

The Augustinian pope is also making clear that the Church, even at its highest levels, is many things but necessarily remains a community of prayer. His illness reinforces that dimension, which Leo sees as an opportunity or a sign from heaven to be heeded.

The result, according to Bishop Domenico Mogavero, will be “a genuinely synodal approach to governance.” He added: “The health emergency certainly enhances the prophetic force of the pontificate, even as it limits its political effectiveness. Prevost will have to delegate more, but he will not lose any of his prerogatives.”

Archbishop Michele Pennisi sees the illness as “a test of vulnerability that strengthens Leo’s standing by bringing him closer to ordinary people. Neither a reduction in his activities nor a reshuffling of his schedule will weaken him. On the contrary, empathy for a man who does not conceal a personal struggle will grow.”

The effect could be to reinvigorate the pontificate. Something similar happened to John Paul II after the 1981 assassination attempt, the 55 days he spent in the hospital following a cytomegalovirus infection, and the stomach cancer diagnosed 12 years later.

“He pushed beyond the obstacle,” said Filippo Di Giacomo, a canon lawyer and priest. “Those who think Prevost will be incapacitated by this health crisis are mistaken. As a missionary, he will devote himself fully to carrying out his duty. And precisely when he appears weakest, he will demonstrate the full force of his calm and peacemaking presence in a world gone mad. Whether the news is good or bad, he will continue walking with the Church and keeping us informed.”

Until the pontificate of John Paul II, the causes of popes’ deaths were not publicly disclosed, even after they had died. In more recent pontificates, by contrast, medical bulletins have tracked recovery periods and accompanied the exercise of papal authority.

The removal of a malignant tumor has triggered what the Vatican’s hierarchy calls the “K factor” — cancer, in a phrase coined by former Italian President Francesco Cossiga. Church officials are examining how a pope’s illness might change established practices and guidelines.

Tuesday’s diagnosis dealt a severe blow to those in the Vatican responsible for managing a pontificate now facing a period of vulnerability and uncertainty. The pope’s illness could accelerate Leo’s agenda, as happened with John XXIII. Elected at 77 in the 1950s — an age comparable to 90 today, given changes in life expectancy — John XXIII convened the Second Vatican Council because he knew his time was limited and believed he needed to act quickly.

Alternatively, the K factor could weaken the geopolitical reach of the papacy and slow its work, as happened during the final five years of Karol Wojtyła’s pontificate. As John Paul II’s health deteriorated, it became increasingly unclear who was in charge of the Curia. The Holy See’s international voice grew faint and indistinct, mirroring the pope’s declining health.

The Vatican’s governing machinery is now preparing to operate in a temporary, stopgap mode. The model being followed by the Secretariat of State is the management of the 11 periods of convalescence experienced by John Paul II.

Supporting Prevost are several key appointments made in the final weeks before his hospitalization, including Tagle, Archbishop Vittorio Viola and Sister Mary Teresa Barron, alongside senior officials heading Vatican departments: Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Paolo Rudelli, Giordano Piccinotti and Archbishop Paul Gallagher.

As Wednesday’s gathering in St. Peter’s Square demonstrated, national bishops’ conferences are rallying around the elected pope in an effort to hold the Church together.